About Reality Managers
More than a community—a coordination mechanism for people who believe opinion is an asset class.
THE PROBLEM
Prediction market participants are isolated. Polymarket traders operate in Discord channels optimized for alpha, not depth. Kalshi users are often first-time retail traders without community. Sports bettors have communities but lack sophistication about market mechanics.
Academic economists write papers no one reads and rarely trade. DeFi builders understand mechanism design but lack prediction market context. Nobody is bringing these people together in SF.
THE SOLUTION
Reality Managers is the intersection of intellectual rigor and skin-in-the-game practitioners. A coordination point, not just a community. The place where people who believe prediction markets matter come to learn, share, and connect.
WHY “REALITY MANAGERS”
The Reflexivity Play
George Soros's core insight: markets don't just passively reflect reality—they shape it. Prediction markets are the purest expression of this. When Polymarket shows 70% odds for an outcome, that number changes behavior, which changes the outcome itself.
The Slight Irreverence
“Reality Managers” sounds like a job title from a satirical dystopia. That's the point. It's intellectually serious but self-aware. It signals that this isn't an academic club—it's for people who actually have skin in the game.
The In-Group Signal
If someone gets the reference immediately, they're your person. If they ask what it means, you get to explain Soros's reflexivity thesis, which is a great filtering conversation.
WHO IT'S FOR
Traders & Bettors
- →Cross-platform alpha (Polymarket vs. Kalshi vs. offshore books)
- →Technical edge sharing (tools, APIs, analytics)
- →Social proof and accountability for trading discipline
Builders
- →User research with actual market participants
- →Recruiting (engineers, PMs, designers who get it)
- →Investor intros without formal pitch dynamics
Researchers & Academics
- →Real data and practitioner perspectives
- →Career opportunities outside academia
- →Research distribution to people who'll actually use it
Curious Newcomers
- →Low-barrier entry to an intimidating space
- →Learn from people actually making money
- →Network into roles at Kalshi, Polymarket, etc.
THE FORMAT
Monthly IRL meetups in San Francisco, plus Discord for async discussion.
Market Autopsy
Deep dive on a resolved market. What happened? Who got it right? Why?
Builder Demo Night
3-4 short demos of prediction market tools, platforms, or analytics
Guest Lecture
Economist, trader, or operator gives 30 min talk + 30 min Q&A
Social Mixer
No formal content, just drinks and conversation
Ready to join?
Events are invite-only to start. Request access on Luma.